The Belarusian opposition condemns Lukashenko and Sunday’s elections

Svetlana Tikhanovskaya refuses to describe what is happening this weekend in Belarus as an election.

“It’s a hoax,” says the exiled opposition leader. “This is an operation of a military nature, a show organized by the regime to retain power.”

For three decades, the country has been ruled by an increasingly authoritarian Alexander Lukashenko, who now has strong support from Vladimir Putin who is exploiting his neighbor in his all-out invasion of Ukraine.

This Sunday, Belarusians will see Lukashenko’s name on the ballot again, with four other names carefully selected so as not to pose a challenge.

No independent observers are permitted.

Tight controls were imposed because the last time Belarusians voted for a president, massive protests swept the country.

In 2020, Alexander Lukashenko allowed Svetlana Tikhanovskaya to run against him, believing that the political novice – and the woman – would have no influence.

It was a huge error in judgement.

Tikhanovskaya, who decided to stand in her husband’s place after Lukashenko put him in prison, declared victory.

When Lukashenko received 80% of the vote, crowds took to the streets in the biggest threat ever to Lukashenko’s rule. The protests were eventually crushed by riot police through mass arrests and brute force.

Then the European Union refused to recognize Lukashenko’s legitimacy as president.

Today, all the major opposition figures of that period are in prison or have fled abroad, like Tikhanovskaya. Former protesters still in Belarus have been forced to remain silent.

So the opposition leader is not urging them to take to the streets again on Sunday.

She told the BBC: “We call on Belarusians to reject this hoax and we call on the international community to reject the result.” “But I say to Belarusians, you have to stay safe until the moment of real possibility.

“Because people live in constant fear, and the regime is now intensifying repression.”

You feel this fear immediately when you talk to Belarusians.

Many don’t want to talk publicly about politics at all. Others ask you to change their names, then choose their words carefully.

Some inside Belarus still only talk via encrypted messages, which they immediately delete.

Everyone says that open political activity in the country has been suppressed.

BISOOL, a non-profit organization that helps evacuate vulnerable people, reports a spike in requests to about 30 or 40 requests a month.

Since 2020, the group has evacuated more than 1,500 people.

It also supports former political prisoners who are trying to rebuild life in exile after their release.

For veterinarian Yana Zhuravleva, it was difficult.

Before 2020 she was dedicated to her work and was not particularly politically active. But that summer she joined the huge crowds, hoping for a change.

She was later sentenced to three years in prison for “gross violation of public order.”

“We will be punished for everything,” she recalls of her time in prison.

She estimates that about 1 in 10 women were there because of the protests. Like them, Yana was added to the list of those “prone to extremism and subversive activity.”

“You can’t go to the gym, your only messages are from your relatives, and you get fewer visitation rights. If you complain you always hear the same response: Remember why you’re here,” she told me from Poland, where she moved after her recent release.

Yana admits that it took “tremendous” strength not to slip into a deep depression.

“In prison, I could hardly cry. But when I got out, I suddenly wanted to cry all the time, and I didn’t know why.”

Many of the people I contacted said they had sought psychological help after being interrogated, threatened or imprisoned.

They describe a security apparatus that hunts down anyone with a weak connection to the opposition, then demands the names of all those it detains.

The pressure never stopped.

A woman inside Belarus, who monitored human rights, told me that she had to stop attending court hearings because the authorities had monitored her.

If they can prove any connection to the banned human rights organization Viasna, they could be accused of being “extremist”.

“I can do some specific support work, but I have to be careful,” she told me anonymously.

“You get a strong feeling of helplessness when you see all this injustice.”

Viasna currently lists 1,256 political prisoners in Belarus. Dozens were recently pardoned, but were quickly replaced.

For those escaping the pressure cooker of Belarus, there is the added struggle of knowing they may not return for a long time.

That is why Natalia, which is her real name, decided to stay in Belarus even after being arrested twice for participating in the protests.

“You are very vulnerable once you are on the ‘suppressed’ list,” she explains.

“You cannot get a job because you are in the police database and the authorities are always watching you…”

For Natalia, this meant being arrested again, initially for walking her dog without a leash.

“They claimed I was aggressive and cursed loudly and I waved my arms,” she recalls of her detention in 2023. She was detained for ten days with up to 14 people in a two-person cell, with the light constantly on.

For more than a week, she slept on the wooden floor.

“It really shook my sense of security, and I became much more anxious,” Natalia admits.

She is currently abroad and plans to return to her cats soon. But her neighbors say a police officer just visited her house, checking out all potential protesters before voting on Sunday.

Svetlana Tikhanovskaya believes that the ongoing repression shows that Lukashenko and his allies are afraid.

The opposition leader says that “the shock of 2020 is still fresh and he must eliminate any possibility of an uprising.”

“He knows that Belarusians have not accepted or forgiven him, and they still want change.”

But she admits there is little evidence of that in the short term.

For a while after Russia’s all-out invasion of Ukraine, Belarusians hoped their neighbors would defeat Putin with the West’s help, and that Lukashenko would follow suit.

Some went to the front lines themselves, choosing force after their peaceful protests failed.

But the Ukrainian military is now struggling to hold territory, and President Donald Trump is pressing for peace talks.

“The democratic world cannot make concessions to Putin,” Tikhanovskaya argues, describing Lukashenko as no less dangerous to the world.

He allowed Russia to fire missiles at Ukraine from Belarus and send its tanks through his territory.

It also allowed the free flow of migrants to the Polish border and to the European Union.

“Putin is allowed to deploy nuclear weapons and his army in Belarus, which is a very short route to Poland and Lithuania,” Tikhanovskaya points out.

He added: “He and Putin are a duo, and they support other dictators. He is part of this chain of evil.”

There is no doubt that Alexander Lukashenko’s reinstatement on Sunday will go according to plan.

“These people are very capable,” explains Yana, a former political prisoner.

“They have already crushed the possibilities of protest.”

She is now trying to return to her profession as a veterinarian, but in Poland, and recover from three difficult years behind bars.

Those I spoke to now see Lukashenko’s retirement, or eventual death, as their greatest hope of seeing democracy.

Meanwhile, many are shifting their focus: there is an increase in interest in reviving Belarusian culture and language, an opposition issue. It is the most daring thing many would do in such circumstances.

Natalia admits: “No one says it publicly, but we feel that there are no prospects. There is depression.”

But there is no apparent remorse about it.

Svetlana Tikhanovskaya’s life has changed dramatically since she entered politics.

Her husband is isolated from her country, and is also a political prisoner – and has been in complete isolation for almost two years.

The Opposition Leader insists she still “truly believes” in change.

“2020 was a big shift in mentality in Belarus. I don’t know how long it will take, but this shift is not going away.”