Trends shaping electric vehicles, robotaxis and electric aviation in 2024
If there’s one phrase that captures the mood and theme of 2024 – at least in the transportation sector – it’s “business strike.” Legacy automakers have changed direction on their strategy of all-electric vehicles or go bankrupt, startups have pivoted, and some venture capital firms and Silicon Valley executives have adjusted their views on the changing political landscape in which they now play starring roles.
Jaguar went in a completely new polarizing direction with the A.J Rebranding This received a lot of attention and set social media on fire, at least for a few days. GM has slowed its electric vehicle plans and been forced to change course on software — an internal restructuring that was accelerated by problems with the Chevy Blazer EV that has seen positive developments. But the most surprising shift for the automaker was its decision to stop funding the development of the Cruise robot taxi.
Everywhere we looked, founders, venture capitalists, and auto executives were pivoting to take advantage of changing consumer demand and, in many cases, simply to survive.
Here are the top topics and stories in transportation in 2024.
Self-driving vehicles: axes, survivors, and scale
The roaring years of self-driving vehicle technology — from 2016 to 2020 — are long gone, and the hype cycle has brought us to the bottom of disillusionment. A handful of remaining AV startups, incl Stealth autonomy and Phantom Autowhich had already pivoted, breathed its last in 2024. Other AV startups have taken a cue from their brethren in other sectors and I turned to defendTo officially become dual-use companies. Others, like TuSimple, have almost completely moved away from independent technology development and instead moved to embrace *checks notes* Artificial intelligence animation and games.
The path to trading robots is still fraught with risks. General Motors has decided to stop funding the Cruise robotaxi development program; The automaker will now use that technology and talent to incrementally improve its advanced driver assistance system and eventually introduce self-driving personal vehicles.
However, autonomous vehicles have gotten a boost thanks to the thriving and interesting AI industry and a newfound interest in a holistic approach to autonomy (just ask WIFI). Waymo and Zooxtwo well-funded spacecraft companies, are still on the path to commercial robotaxis. And of course there’s Tesla, which was unveiled this year Cybercab model With plans to start production in 2025 or 2026. CEO Elon Musk also promised to unleash “uncontrolled FSD” and Launching the robotaxi service in California and Texas next year, but we take these promises with a heavy dose of skepticism given Musk’s tendency to miss deadlines.
Other AV must-reads for 2024:
Electric vehicles are being tested
Legacy automakers like Ford and General Motors have spent billions of dollars to boost their electric vehicle lineups and invest in U.S. battery manufacturing facilities to stay on top of supply chains. Electric vehicle sales — boosted by the Biden administration’s electric vehicle tax credit — have continued to reach record levels this year. But automakers and investors fear that electric vehicle sales will decline, which represents… 8.9% of total car sales In the third quarter, it didn’t rise at the pace they had hoped. Tesla even saw its profits decline at the beginning of the year, with Musk noting that automakers were pulling out of electric vehicles due to… Pressure from hybrids. This decline could continue into 2025 with the next administration’s plans to cut the EV tax credit.
Meanwhile, in the electric vehicle startup space, the SPAC model has continued to prove unsuccessful in driving long-term business growth. We dated Fisker’s messy fall — which collapsed under the whims of its founders — including how to leave the startup The headquarters is in complete disarray He had to sign a deal with American Lease, the company that bought the Fisker fleet, to help the owners get what they wanted Assistance with recall repairs.
Kanoo has also struggled to maintain enough cash to operate, and began doing so in December Leave workers. The startup’s financial problems may have come from unsustainable spending habits, e.g Spending double Canoo’s annual revenue On the private plane of CEO Tony Aquila or the acquisition of its assets Arrival of bankrupt peers.
Faraday Future, despite raising more than $1 billion when it merged with a SPAC in 2021, is also declining rapidly — so much so that data mining company Palantir now owns 8.7% of the company’s shares After Faraday was unable to pay for the services rendered.
Rivian was one of the only new EV players that did not go public through a special purpose acquisition. Although Rivian hasn’t had the smoothest performance since its record-breaking IPO, the electric car maker has achieved some major milestones in 2024, albeit with some speed bumps along the way, including a series of lawsuits. Which you claim Harassed senior executives.
In March, Rivian revealed the next-generation R2 SUV and the surprise R3 hatchback. in summer, Rivian’s road to survival It became tied to being able to sell the refurbished R1T pickup and R1S SUV at a profit to sustain itself long enough to get the cheaper R2 SUV on the road. Rivian even broke down a Loan worth $6.6 billion to resume production at its plant in Georgia, although the deal appears to have been backed by a secret agreement with the United Auto Workers union.
Tesla was in a constant state of flux as Musk struggled to hold his ground A $56 billion salary package Through sheer determination and the loyalty of investors. The automaker issued a comprehensive Layoffs this yearher axe The entire Charger teamabandoned its plans to build a $25,000 electric car seven Cybertruck He remembersAnd unveil it Robotaxi model.
Other electrical must-reads for 2024:
Vertical take-off and landing aircraft It still attracts investors
This has been a year full of big intentions for the electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) vehicle industry. It seemed as if every fortnight there was an announcement that two of the biggest players – Joby Aviation and Archer Aviation – were involved in plans to launch future commercial electric taxis starting in 2025.
It was also a year filled with major fundraising as the two companies tried to secure more money to obtain FAA certification and launch commercial air taxi services in 2025. For example, Joby first received A bag worth $500 million From Toyota, then raised $222 million before launching the project $300 million public offering. Archer recently It raised $430 million It has teamed up with Anduril to dive into defense – a theme we expect to continue into 2025 High temperature defense technology. and Beta Technologies raised $318 million Series C.
There have also been plenty of partnerships between eVTOL startups and traditional air carriers – such as Beta’s recent win with Air New Zealand – and the development of vertical airports in major metropolitan areas across the US, Europe and Asia.
However, not all startups have been so lucky, as companies have exhausted capital and failed to find more funding. German eVTOL startup Lilium has filed for bankruptcy after failing to raise enough capital to continue. In December the company Closing and laying off 1,000 workers But it seems he got it Last minute lifeline From an investor. Stay tuned.
Next year, 2025, will be the year we’ll see if the remaining companies can get proper FAA approval and start building businesses with eVTOLs.
Here’s some further reading for eVTOL for 2024:
Micro mobility He swings forward
The hype around shared micromobility is long gone. This year saw the final moments of consolidation, transitions, and a few survivors.
Tier and Dott finally mergedLime has continued its steady path to achieving, if not consistent, then at least sustainable profitability and market dominance.
VanMoof’s bankruptcy in 2023 revealed how difficult it is to scale new e-bike businesses, despite consumers’ appetite for exciting and stylish e-bikes. Cake filed for bankruptcy At the beginning of the year, W Onyx Motorcycles It was on the verge of bankruptcy when its 37-year-old owner suddenly died, leaving a huge mess behind. Cake and Onyx are given new chances to survive in 2025.
Some startups have managed to find a way to keep the e-bike business afloat. Just look at Goku. The startup has battled the odds and managed to turn its e-bike rental service for delivery workers into Profitable business It has also branched out into building battery charging tanks.
Here’s another micromobility must-read for 2024:
