Xai -X is a good deal – if you are betting on the Musk’s Empire
When Elon Musk announced that AI, Xai, acquired the social media company, X (previously known as Twitter), in A deal for all inventorySprinkle some eyebrows. But in many ways, the deal was logical. Chatbot from Xai, GROK, is already with X, X was flying financiallyAnd Musk needed a way to make the Twitter acquisition of $ 44 billion seemed less similar to the impulsive and more likely to play as strategic play Aji dominance.
He also pointed to something deeper on how Musk’s empire works: Investing in any company is not related to the rapid return on investment. It comes to buying mysticism about musk and swallowing a narration of success that exceeds the actual numbers.
Some call it a DevoutNoting the date of musk Excessive preparation and weakness. But the market is increasingly tolerant-welcoming, even by the investments led by the narration, especially when the thread that connects the story together is one of the right-president men.
“All Elon Company today is basically one company,” said Union Rishman, a manager at Slow Ventures, told Techcrunch. “Everything is already Elon, INC. There are people working across multiple companies at a time. They share a network of capital communications. They deal with each other, and all treat them effectively as one company. [the xAI-X merger] Only some of the imagination that the two companies were separate. “
Thinking between musk bulls such as Ron Baron, founder of investment management company Baron Capital, is “everything is the same [Musk] He does that is helping everything else to do, “Baron Formulation. Other companies include the control of Musk Tesla, Spacex, The Poring Company and Neuralink – some of them According to the resources exchange.
“when [Musk] He bought Twitter, was it in his mind that there is an opportunity to get this data, which is a huge value for the license? When he decided that he wanted to go to Mars with Spacex, did you really think at first that there is a real opportunity here for the Internet all over the world, and there will be hundreds of billions of opportunities for revenue? When he started with EVS for Tesla, do I really think this will merge into self -driving, where you can get hundreds of billions of dollars per year from additional profits, and GROK […] And you will have connected cars all over the world? […] All of these companies link. It is the environmental system. It is the ecological system, and I think it’s really interesting when you look at it in this way. “
Baron Capital has invested via MUSK ecosystem, an example of the investor cross -investment between the various billionaire companies. Companies such as 8VC, Andressen Horowitz, DFJ Growth, Fidelity Investments, Manhattan Venture Partners, PIF in Saudi Arabia, Sequoia Capital, Vy Capital and other positions throughout the Musk company.
This brings us back to the Xai-X deal. Critics asked how the X acquisition could estimate $ 33 billion, More than three times its evaluation Just a few months ago, and how Xai can be estimated at $ 80 billion, given the artificial intelligence company It is said He has little in the path of revenue. But the assessments do not always depend on what is present today. Instead, they take into account what investors hope for – this is especially true when it comes to Musk projects.
Just take a look at Tesla. The electric car maker, such as technology share, has been dealt with for years despite the fact that it contains Car maker marginsBased on a large extent that Tesla will open one day, a leading independence in the form of self -driving cars and human robots.
“the reason [Tesla’s] “This is one of the Great Greats in Elon, this ability to keep investors in the long term,” said Jin Monster, the administrative partner of Deepwater Asset Management. ” For numbers this year.
Monster has invested at X, Xai and Tesla. It is exactly the type of Backer All-in Musk that will benefit more than one deal like Xai Buying X, assuming that Musk can already submit a pledge to marry data and distribute data in the actual time in XAI with Xai infrastructure and artificial intelligence experience.
Of course, the unified value also comes with increased risk.
Dan Wang, Professor of Columbia College of Business, whose research lies in the intersection of business and society, Techcrunch that the largest immediate risk factor for investors is the ongoing lawsuit that X is facing from the Securities and Stock Exchange Committee (SEC). The lawsuit accuses holding the misleading investors by delaying the disclosure of its previous investments on Twitter. SEC argued that this allowed Musk to purchase more Twitter shares at artificially low.
Wang included some other risk considerations, such as anti -reproductive concerns and user privacy, especially with regard to how X quietly choosing all users in collecting data to train on the artificial intelligence model. The change in adherence has already sparked one organized anger, DPC in IrelandThe recent investigation of the matter as a potential violation of the GDP law in Europe.
“There is another type of risk here is that there is no collective framework for how to organize the artificial intelligence market, but you already see traces in Europe, until recently, in California,” Wang said. “Many of these frameworks relate to how to publish artificial intelligence models in terms of information distribution […] They attribute the responsibility of companies that create artificial intelligence models, in addition to providing access to these models. ”
Rechtman said MUSK may simply lose his interest in a project.
He said: “I think this is what many of Tesla’s shareholders feel at the present time, as Illon was the first in the past few months, the Trump campaign, and its other projects.”
When asked about some of these risk factors, Monster looked uncontrolled. It suggested that it is illogical given of magnitude, for example, the suggestion of the value of Xai and the possibility to become a dominant player in artificial intelligence.
“We are betting on the company on the belief that artificial intelligence will be more transformative than people believe,” he said. “What is the value […] One of the four minds that the world will continue on? ”
Rechtman said that Bulls Musk are not blind loyal, in itself, but it simply trusts the great force of Musk in “bending the capital markets to his will” in a way that allows him to do things and build works that no one else can.
“The people in these companies have gone for a long time, and they will continue to go to Elon.” “So it is not surprising to me that they will continue to tell you that the emperor is wearing clothes.”
Not for nothing, the purchase in the most speculative Musk bets, such as X, is one of the ways to cancel more investment opportunities in Muskerse.
He said: “Spacex is a real thing, and it will never be announced.” “So the only way to invest in Spacex is to access tenders. The only way to access tenders is to be in the good ELON grace.”
